Defense — Archive
Defense Briefing
The security situation is acutely critical: the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026 has triggered a regional war that has expanded to at least nine countries and could lead to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz with a 69% probability. In parallel, the hybrid war in Europe is escalating: Russia has conducted the largest cyberattack to date on Polish energy infrastructure, while Iran attacks Western critical infrastructure digitally. Europe faces a dual security watershed – the de facto withdrawal of the USA as primary defense guarantor alongside threats from Russia in the east and Iranian escalation dynamics in the south. The NATO Eastern Flank remains stable (Polymarket: 96% no Russian direct attacks on NATO territory), yet the cumulation of Middle East war, cyber threats, and strategic US realignment confronts European security architecture with its most severe stress test since the Cold War.
Defense Briefing
The global security situation has deteriorated dramatically in March 2026: the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks have triggered an uncontrolled escalation spiral in the Middle East, while simultaneously the Russia-Ukraine war is gaining new intensity and Ukraine is recapturing territory on a large scale for the first time. Europe is responding with massive rearmament (21% of global military spending) and strategic realignment (French nuclear guarantee, Nordic NATO integration), but also signaling growing independence from the US. At the same time, state cyber operations against critical infrastructure are escalating globally, while traditional military and hybrid threats are converging – a security policy environment of unprecedented complexity and immediate risk.